[RIFORMANDO:456] Eurolandia vista da Londra

http://www.dailytelegraph.co.uk/dt?ac=002726354618190&rtmo=qX9XXLX9&atmo=kkg
Gjwfu&pg=/00/4/28/ixdlead.html#2

Euroland's prospect 

IMAGINE what it must be to be residents of euroland. How would we feel about
the decline of the euro? Yesterday the European Central Bank increased
interest rates by a quarter of one per cent, but, instead of rallying, the
euro fell even further. The currency has now dropped by more than a fifth
against the dollar. The German mark (which now exists only in name) is at a
14-year low against the pound. If we were residents of, say, France or
Belgium, would this cause us to worry? 

We would certainly be hearing reassuring words from our politicians. There
is a lot of talk on the Continent about the difference between the
"internal" and the "external" economies. It is suggested that the internal
economy is not affected by changes in the external value of the euro. To
British ears, such reasoning takes us back to Harold Wilson's notorious
ministerial broadcast in November 1967, after the pound had been devalued by
a comparatively modest 14 per cent. "It does not mean, of course," he said,
"that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank,
has been devalued." Is that message any more reliable now than it was 33
years ago? 

For the present, there are no signs of resurgent prices. But on the other
hand, monetary control appears loose. The fall in the currency itself
indicates this. In addition, money supply in euroland has been rising at
more than six per cent - above the reference level of 4.5 per cent. Credit
growth is rising even faster, at about 10 per cent. These figures suggest a
genuine risk of higher inflation down the line. 

Eurolanders might also reasonably be concerned about the causes of the
present weakness. Foreigners - and locals, too - are reluctant to invest in
euroland. Most of the member countries are seen as having low underlying
growth, taxes that are too high and administrative burdens that are too
heavy. Gradually, faith in the currency itself is ebbing away. Nobody has
ever known the euro to do anything but fall and the European Central Bank is
untested. It has never raised interest rates aggressively. Is it capable of
doing so? Has it got the guts and the independence? Eurolanders cannot know
for sure. 

There is a slight risk that the currency might go into freefall. What would
happen? Would the ECB at last raise interest rates with conviction? Or not?
If it did, how would countries still suffering from high unemployment react?
Might a populist politician arise somewhere, arguing that the unemployed
were suffering because of the membership of the euro? Could there be talk of
deserting it? 

For the time being, eurolanders are not suffering. But they might reasonably
be a little concerned. It is like the phoney war - a time of uneasiness. 

............
Forse hanno ragione in Gran Bretagna. L'Europa e' troppo soggetta a politici
un po' "populisti" e ipocritamente rassicuranti. Oltretutto, quale autentico
spirito democratico puo' ritrovarsi in un governo in cui commissari e
premier sono designati da "quote" nazionali e accordi sottobanco fra i paesi
piu' potenti dell'UE (tant'e' che per avere un italiano alla presidenza si
sono fatte concessioni enormi ai britannici e si permette che l'Italia venga
bistrattata peggio dell'Irlanda)?
Il nano politico europeo rischia grosso. Se il Marco tedesco o il Franco
francese avessero perso nei confronti del dollaro quello che ha perso
l'Euro, sarebbero state mozzate molte teste. Invece l'Europa continua con
una certa ignavia a stare alla finestra.
Il nodo della rappresentanza politica, oltre al sentire comune dei
cittadini-elettori europei (che latita), ci pone ad anni luce di distanza
dalla superpotenza USA.
Credo che sia urgente altrettanto affrontare questo problema, quanto
realizzare le riforme istituzionali in casa nostra.
Quest'Europa assomiglia sempre piu' al nostro disgraziato paese, piuttosto
che il contrario!

fm



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